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On the 26th, Indian warplanes entered Pakistani airspace and claimed that the purpose was to combat terrorist organizations in response to previous terrorist attacks on Indian police in Kashmir. Pakistan condemned the move and said it reserved the right to fight back at any time and place. Indian officials say at least three Pakistani fighter jets entered Kashmir on the 27th and were later intercepted by Indian troops. According to Pakistan's "Dawn" news, the Pakistani military said that in Kashmir, two Indian aircraft were shot down, an Indian pilot was captured.

26日,印度戰機曾進入巴基斯坦領空,并宣稱目的是為了打擊恐怖組織,以回應此前印度警察在克什米爾遭受的恐怖襲擊。巴基斯坦對此舉表示譴責,并稱保留在任何的時間和地點回擊的權力。
印度官方表示,27日至少3架巴基斯坦戰斗機進入克什米爾地區,之后被印軍升空攔截。另據巴基斯坦《黎明報》消息,巴基斯坦軍方表示,在克什米爾有2架印度飛機被擊落,1名印度飛行員被俘。

India and Pakistan are in the throes of the most serious military standoff between them since 2002. After years of absorbing terror attacks conceived by non-state groups based on Pakistani soil, India decided enough was enough after a February 14 vehicle-borne improvised explosive device killed forty paramilitary personnel. its response? An airstrike on what it claimed was a camp run by Jaish-e-Mohammed, the group that claimed the attack, on Pakistani soil.

印度和巴基斯坦正在經歷2002年以來最嚴重的軍事對峙。印度多年來一直在巴基斯坦領土上遭受著非國家組織策劃的恐怖襲擊。2月14日,一枚車載簡易爆炸裝置炸死40名準軍事人員,印度認為已經夠了。它的回應呢?這次空襲的目標是穆罕默德軍在巴基斯坦境內的一個營地,該組織聲稱發動了之前的襲擊。



On Wednesday, Pakistani escalation followed across the Line of Control after Pakistan Air Force F-16s conducted strikes of their own. Both sides again presented battling narratives about what sort of targets were struck, with Pakistan trying to make clear that its response was proportional retaliation for India’s strikes. An Indian official statement, meanwhile, stated that while the Pakistani fighters targeted “military installations,” they had been “foiled successfully.”

星期三,巴基斯坦空軍F -16戰機進行了他們自己的攻擊后,巴基斯坦越過控制線,局勢升級。雙方再次就襲擊了哪些目標展開了激烈的爭論,巴基斯坦試圖表明,它的回應是對印度襲擊的適當報復。與此同時,印度發表的一份官方聲明說,盡管巴基斯坦武裝分子以“軍事設施”為目標,但他們“成功將其挫敗了”。

One complicating factor was the loss of Indian aircraft in the exchange on Wednesday. One Indian Air Force pilot, forced to ditch his MiG-21 fighter, was taken into Pakistani custody. Pakistan’s military released footage showing the pilot in good health—presumably to ward off criticisms that had followed of the mistreatment of Indian pilots during the 1999 Kargil War.
The Indian acknowledgment that Pakistan targeted “military installations” in retaliation for New Delhi’s calibrated “non-military” strike will increase pressure on the Indian government to now retaliate in turn. That’d make a third round of escalation, raising the possibility of an all-out spiral that’d quickly risk taking the two countries close to the low nuclear threshold that exists between them thanks to Pakistan’s aggressive nuclear strategy and battlefield nuclear weapons.

一個復雜的因素是,印度飛機在周三的交火中失事。一名印度空軍飛行員被迫放棄米格-21戰斗機,被巴基斯坦拘留。巴基斯坦軍方公布的錄像顯示,這名飛行員身體狀況良好,這大概是為了避免1999年卡吉爾戰爭期間印度飛行員受到虐待的批評。
印度承認,巴基斯坦以“軍事設施”為目標,以報復新德里精心策劃的“非軍事”打擊,這將加大印度政府現在采取報復行動的壓力。這將導致第三輪沖突升級,從而加大全面升級的可能性,因為巴基斯坦咄咄逼人的核戰略和戰場上的核武器,全面升級有可能迅速使兩國接近低核門檻。



Other possible avenues by which the crisis may be de-escalated include the intervention of third powers. The United States is distracted with the ongoing summitry in Hanoi, Vietnam, and China and Russia are each seen as too partisan to Pakistan and India respectively. Numerous nations have issued statements calling on both sides to practice restraint, in the meantime.
Whatever happens next rests in the hands of political decisionmakers in India. This conflict can find an off-ramp, but it must come quickly. Above all, national strategy cannot be allowed to fall victim to the passions of domestic constituencies all too eager to march toward a ruinous and likely uncontrollable war, assuming it will remain under the nuclear threshold.

危機可能降級的其他可能途徑包括第三大國的干預。在河內舉行的峰會分散了美國的注意力。中國和俄羅斯分別被認為過于偏袒巴基斯坦和印度。與此同時,許多國家發表聲明,呼吁雙方保持克制。
接下來發生的一切都掌握在印度政治決策者的手中。這種沖突可以找到出路,但必須盡快到來。最重要的是,不能讓國家戰略成為國內選民激情的犧牲品,這些選民太急于走向一場毀滅性的、可能無法控制的戰爭,前提是戰爭仍將處于核門檻之下。